The 2018 Winston Cup Series: "Round of 12" without the playoffs

Jimmie Johnson slides into Martin Truex Jr. on the final lap of the Bank of America Roval 400

     Sunday's race at the Charlotte 'Roval' ended up being exactly what NASCAR was hoping for. The event was unpredictable, tested driver skill, and even featured a chaotic finish. While entering the final turns, Jimmie Johnson locked the brakes up and spun into leader Martin Truex Jr., allowing Ryan Blaney to race by for his first win of the year. The final lap collision dropped Truex Jr. to 14th, while Johnson managed to finish 8th. Johnson wound up losing a tiebreaker for the final two spots in the next playoff round, with Aric Almirola and Kyle Larson. Because of his miscue on the final lap of the Roval, the 48 was eliminated. Also not advancing to round two of the playoffs: Austin Dillon, Denny Hamlin, and Erik Jones.
     Meanwhile, here's a look at the old standings, not calculating stage points or playoffs points:

     Without the playoffs altogether, the 2018 season looks drastically different. Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Truex are far ahead in points, holding true to the "Big Three" nameplate the media has given them. Joey Logano and Kurt Busch, ranked 4th and 5th, have had very consistent seasons with one win each. Right behind them, 6th in 'classic' points, sits Hamlin, now "eliminated" from the NASCAR Playoffs. Despite what NASCAR is trying to tell you, Hamlin has actually had another great year. One of the sport's most consistent drivers, Hamlin has 14 top-tens this season, and three starts from the pole. He's won at least one race in all 12 of the previous seasons, and has come close this year, notably at Indianapolis where he narrowly lost to Brad Keselowski.

The Las Vegas crash that effectively ended Denny Hamlin's chances in the playoffs

     Hamlin's playoff fate was pretty much sealed after a spin at Las Vegas, which destroyed the front end of his car in the infield grass. Finishes of 16th at Richmond, and 12th at the Roval weren't enough to save his championship hopes. If anything, Hamlin's "elimination" is the last thing we needed.
     The playoffs have also invalidated what was a great season for the 20 of Erik Jones, in his first year at Joe Gibbs Racing. Jones had a great summer, where he tallied 9 top-tens over 11 races, including his first career win at Daytona. Like his teammate, Jones' playoff hopes also dwindled at Las Vegas, where he crashed with Kevin Harvick and ended up in 40th place.

The highlight of Erik Jones' season so far, winning his first career Cup race at Daytona

     Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson has been having arguably the worst season of his Cup career. While Jimmie does have 10 top-ten finishes, it's nothing compared to his previous 16 seasons. This could end up being Johnson's first full season without a win. I partly blame this, and Hendrick's struggles, on Chevrolet's switch to the Camaro this season. Chevy has only gone to victory lane twice this year, including Chase Elliott's win at Watkins Glen. Johnson, and his teammates, haven't been blessed with the same speed as Ford and Toyota, which only hurt their cause.

     The other winning Chevy driver this season was Austin Dillon, taking the Daytona 500 back in February. Of all this year's playoff drivers, Dillon's resume was the worst, heading into the 'postseason' with only 4 top-tens. After the Roval, Dillon actually had less 'classic' points than his RCR teammate Ryan Newman, who believe it or not, is not even in the playoffs...

Kyle Busch wins his 7th race of the season at Richmond

     The real story we should be talking about is Kyle Busch's performance this year. With seven races to go in the "classic" format, Busch leads Kevin Harvick by 44 points, and Martin Truex Jr. by 85. Together, the three drivers have won 62 percent of this year's races, and amassed thousands of laps led. Under this format, nobody else - aside from Joey Logano - would have even a remote chance of capturing the championship. Busch would still be seeking his first title, while Truex Jr. hopes to go back-to-back. 
    With how well they've performed, why change the conversation to anything other than "the Big Three?"

The 2018 Winston Cup Series: Harvick wins, Kenseth returns

Kevin Harvick celebrates after winning the KC Masterpiece 400 at Kansas.

     What was mostly a wide-open snoozefest at Kansas, got interesting in the final 30 laps, before Harvick made it memorable with his victory in the KC Masterpiece 400. After the final restart, Harvick was a full second behind Martin Truex Jr. with five laps to go, but somehow managed to reel him in and take the lead coming to the white flag. Harvick led five times for 79 laps, leading to his 5th win of the season. The #4 car was the weekend favorite, but it appeared circumstance would take away his chance, when several cars did not make a late-race pit stop, including Truex. In the end, four fresh tires wound up being the difference...
     The win solidifies where Harvick is this season, as well as Stewart Haas Racing, and Ford in general. SHR now has a combined six wins in 2018. If we're going off the 'classic' standings I calculate here, the team has all four drivers in the top-8... In his 18th Cup season, Harvick is setting himself up for his best year ever.

Matt Kenseth practices the #6 Ford ahead of Saturday's race at Kansas. Kenseth was involved in a late race wreck, finishing 36th.

     The big storyline heading into Kansas was the return of 2003 Cup champion Matt Kenseth... It was Kenseth's first Cup race since the season finale last November, when he was released by Joe Gibbs Racing in favor of Erik Jones. For longtime fans, Kenseth's return brought a slight amount of normalcy to the track. He was one of my favorite drivers growing up, and following the departure of Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and others, Kenseth on-track was a welcome sight. The #6 car ran around 25th place most of the night, before being involved in a late-race crash, finishing 36th. It wasn't the return most people anticipated, but having Kenseth behind the wheel will certainly be of some help to Roush Fenway Racing.
     Not counting part-time driver Derrike Cope, Kenseth now retakes the title of oldest driver, at 46 years old. Jimmie Johnson and Harvick are both 42... Kenseth will drive the #6 in the All-Star race, and the points-paying races at Charlotte, Pocono, and Michigan (which I can't wait to attend).

     Taking a look at the classic standings after Kansas, Harvick continues to gain ground on the leaders, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch... Even with only one win, Logano's consistency has proven to be important so far... Clint Bowyer drops back a bit, after a 20-point penalty from Dover, and Ryan Blaney drops from 6th to 10th, after finishing 37th at Kansas. Meanwhile, Aric Almirola continues his impressive run this season, scoring his 5th top-ten of the year...
     11th through 20th looks like this: Bowman, Keselowski, Jones, Johnson, Austin Dillon, Stenhouse Jr., Elliott, Byron, Menard, and Newman... Jamie McMurray has had a lackluster start for Chip Ganassi, currently sitting 23rd.

William Byron's car is destroyed following a multi-car crash on lap 253, which saw Byron hit the wall head-on. Byron walked away from the accident.

     The Cup series now heads into the All-Star weekend at Charlotte, meaning we won't have another points event until the Coca-Cola 600 on May 27th. This is a track that has historically benefited Jimmie Johnson, who has 8 wins there, the last coming in 2016... Kyle Busch has surprisingly never won at Charlotte, posting 16 top-tens in 28 starts. Harvick and Logano both have victories at the track, so does Matt Kenseth, who won the 2000 Coke 600 with Roush Racing...

Harvick leads the field early in the KC Masterpiece 400 at Kansas.

The 2018 Winston Cup Series: Busch's three-peat

Kyle Busch celebrates after winning the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond, his third straight victory.

     After Kevin Harvick's three straight wins to get the 2018 season going, Kyle Busch gave us a three-peat of his own. Starting 32nd in the Toyota Owners 400, Busch quickly plowed through the field, and after running well most of the race, surged to lead the final laps. Busch survived three late restarts to win his third race of 2018, and his fifth career win at Richmond, tying him with Dale Earnhardt. Busch now extends his 'classic' point lead to 35, as we complete the first fourth of the season.

Kyle Busch leads the pack during the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond.

     Busch's win almost came as a surprise, after what was mostly a wide-open race at Richmond. After Martin Truex Jr. led the opening laps from the pole, the race was mainly dominated by Kurt Busch, Joey Logano, and Clint Bowyer. But a late caution allowed Busch to take the lead on pit road, and proved to be the difference. It only serves as a reminder of the #18 car's dominance so far this year. Make that seven straight top-3 finishes for Kyle Busch.
     Truex posed a decent challenge to Busch, but lost several positions on his final pit stop, finishing 14th. He wasn't alone; Kurt Busch, after leading 98 laps, faded and eventually finished 11th, while Clint Bowyer wound up 9th... Finishing behind Kyle Busch were Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Logano, and Harvick... William Byron and Aric Almirola, two drivers with good runs throughout the race, wound up 12th and 17th... In his first Cup series start, Daniel Hemric finished 32nd, 3 laps down...

     After 9 of 36 races, Kyle Busch has taken a substantial 'classic' point lead over the field. He leads Logano by 35, Bowyer by 49, and Hamlin by 64 points. Kevin Harvick climbs to 5th overall, while Ryan Blaney drops back to 7th, with a poor finish at Richmond. Just outside the top-10, Brad Keselowski sits 11th, followed by Eric Jones, and Austin Dillon... Jimmie Johnson has made slight progress, up to 16th, while Chase Elliott sits in 24th place (although his 2nd at Richmond was an improvement). Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has also had a slow start, tied for 22nd in points with AJ Allmendinger.
     Up next, the Cup series switches things up and heads to Talladega. Looking at last year's races, especially the fall race, it's clearly a wild card on the schedule. Only 14 cars were running at the end of last fall's Alabama 500, after multiple crashes. A safe Fantasy live pick, crashes aside, is Brad Keselowski. With Dale Jr.'s retirement, he leads active drivers with 5 wins at the track. But it's also a good week to pick some lower key drivers, who may not be involved in "the big one" (Gray Gaulding finished 9th last year).

The 2018 Winston Cup Series: Busch wins rain-delayed race at Bristol

Kyle Busch celebrates after winning the Food City 500. It was his 7th Cup win at Bristol.

     Kyle Busch powered past Kyle Larson in the closing laps of Monday's Food City 500 at Bristol. Busch used the bump and run to get by the #42, going on to win his 7th career Cup race at the track. Larson settled for 2nd, followed by Jimmie Johnson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Alex Bowman, with his first career top-5. The race was delayed by rain Sunday afternoon, after only 204 laps, setting up a Monday finish. Larson appeared to have the race won, before a late caution when Brad Keselowski blew a left front tire... This set up a 22-lap sprint, and Busch's chance at catching Larson. It's Busch's 45th career Cup win, 16th on the all-time list.

Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, and Kyle Busch in action during the Food City 500.

     Other drivers to run well included Darrell Wallace Jr., leading six laps before fading and finishing 16th... Clint Bowyer notched his 3rd straight top-10, coming home 8th... Ryan Blaney ran well early, before being taken out in a six-car wreck on lap 118, finishing 35th... And driving for startup StarCom Racing, Landon Cassill piloted the #00 car to 20th place.

     Here's a look at the updated 'classic' standings after 8 races. Kyle Busch extends his point lead, after back-to-back wins. With 300 points, Busch leads Joey Logano by 29 points, and Clint Bowyer by 38 (I have to note, Bowyer's start to the season has been pretty impressive). Kevin Harvick improves to 6th place, while Martin Truex Jr. drops to 7th. You'll notice that the top-6 is entirely made up of Joe Gibbs, Stewart Haas, and Team Penske cars... Alex Bowman is Hendrick's best showing, cracking back into the top-10... But Busch's start is the most impressive. Aside from a rough Daytona 500 where he placed 25th, Busch then finished 7th at Atlanta, before finishing the last six races inside the top-3.

Ryan Blaney (12) and Harrison Rhodes (51) crash on lap 118 of the Food City 500. Blaney was leading, when caught up in a six-car accident

     Thanks to the weather, the Cup teams have a short turnaround ahead of Saturday night's race at Richmond. Several active drivers have multiple wins here, including both Busch brothers, Jimmie Johnson, and Denny Hamlin. One notable storyline: Daniel Hemric will make his Cup series debut at Richmond, driving the #8 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing. It's the first time the #8 car will race in Cup since Dale Earnhardt Jr. drove it in 2007. Hemric is 27, and in 40 Xfinity series starts, he has 21 top-10's. Watch for him to have a nice debut...

The 2018 Winston Cup Series: Kyle Busch back on top

Kyle Busch leads Kevin Harvick on his way to winning at Texas, his third victory at the track.

     While very brief, Kyle Busch ended any 'slump' speculation Sunday, winning the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Busch has been one of 2018's hottest drivers so far, with four-straight finishes of 2nd or 3rd heading into the race... He led 116 of 334 laps at Texas, for his first win of the season. Kevin Harvick finished 2nd, followed by Jamie McMurray in 3rd, and Erik Jones in 4th. The race concluded with a battle between Busch and Harvick, with Harvick unable to reel in the #18. With the win, and the misfortune of several drivers, Busch now sits atop an 18-point lead only 7 races in...

Brad Keselowski (2), Denny Hamlin (11), and Jimmie Johnson (48) are involved in a 7-car crash on lap 179. The three drivers finished 33rd, 34th, and 35th.

     The race was marred by several crashes involving high-profile drivers. In Stage 1, Martin Truex Jr. was running 2nd, when he cut a tire and crashed coming off of turn 4... On lap 128, Kyle Larson suffered a hard crash in turn 2 after cutting a tire. He was running 4th at the time... A 7-car melee ensued at the start of Stage 3, when Denny Hamlin got loose and triggered a wreck involving himself, Aric Almirola, Brad Keselowski, and Jimmie Johnson. The crash took all four drivers out of the race... And with 31 laps to go, Ryan Newman cut down a tire on the frontstretch and slapped the outside wall...

Kyle Larson exits his car after a hard crash in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.

     This opened the door for several other drivers to have good finishes. Darrell Wallace Jr. brought home an 8th for Richard Petty Motorsports, and William Byron got his first top-10 of the year, finishing 10th... Ty Dillon finished a solid 13th, and Matt DiBenedetto finished 16th... Ross Chastain, Cole Whitt, and Gray Gaulding all finished inside the top-20... and Landon Cassill drove StarCom Racing's #00 to a 21st place finish.

     Taking a look at the classic point standings after 7 races, Busch now holds an 18-point lead over Joey Logano, and 21 over Ryan Blaney. Clint Bowyer, after another strong run, moves up to 4th place... Truex Jr. dropped from 1st to 5th, after finishing dead last at Texas... Kevin Harvick re-enters the top-10, along with Erik Jones... 
     Up next, the Cup series visits Bristol for the second short track race of the year. Kyle Busch has an excellent chance at posting back-to-back wins; he won Bristol's night race last August... Kyle leads among active drivers there, with 6 Bristol wins. His brother Kurt is in 2nd among actives, with 5 wins, but none since 2006... Johnson, Harvick, Keselowski, and Logano have all won at Bristol twice in their careers...

The 2018 Winston Cup Series: Bowyer snaps his winless streak

Clint Bowyer burns it down after winning the STP 500 at Martinsville.

     Finally, the stars aligned for Clint Bowyer. After 190 winless starts, Bowyer returned to victory lane, winning Monday's STP 500 at Martinsville. It's his first win since the fall race at Charlotte in 2012. Bowyer led 215 of 500 laps, dominating stage 3 of the event. His main challenger, Kyle Busch, finished 2nd, followed by Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr., and Kevin Harvick... AJ Allmendinger had a great run, finishing 8th, and Alex Bowman got his first top-10 of the year, finishing 7th... Stewart Haas Racing has won 4 of the season's first 6 races...

Snow blanketed Martinsville Speedway and southern Virginia Saturday night, leading to a delay that bumped both the Truck and Cup races to Monday.

     The race was delayed due to snow over the weekend in southern Virginia, but it was well worth the wait. This set up a doubleheader, with an exciting Truck series race starting in the morning, followed by the Cup drivers. In the Truck race, 21-year-old Ben Rhodes had the fastest truck early on, but a poor pit stop shuffled him back to an eventual 12th place finish. John Hunter Nemechek took the lead late from Kyle Benjamin, and held on to pick up his first win of the season. The action was great to wake up to, before the Cup drivers hit the track...

Clint Bowyer leads over Kyle Busch in the late stages of the STP 500. Bowyer led 215 of 500 laps.

     Monday's STP 500 had only four cautions, the fewest at Martinsville since 1978. This helped Bowyer drive away from the pack, during a 109-lap green flag run to the finish. His 190-race drought between wins is one of the longest ever. Only Bill Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. had longer droughts between wins, at 226 and 218...
     Taking a look at the standings, not much changed up top, with the same drivers making up the top-5. Truex Jr. now leads Busch by 8 points, and Hamlin by 14... Bowyer's win helps him jump to 6th overall, and Bowman has entered the top-10 after a good Martinsville run. Kevin Harvick sits just outside the top-10 in 11th... Jimmie Johnson is 18th, and Chase Elliott has some work to do, currently back in 22nd.

     Up next, NASCAR takes this coming weekend off for Easter, before heading to Texas Motor Speedway. If there's any track for Jimmie Johnson to make his triumphant return to victory lane, this is it. Johnson holds a record 7 wins at Texas, including last year's spring race. Other drivers to watch include Truex Jr., and Chase Elliott...

The 2018 Winston Cup Series: No four-peat in California

Kevin Harvick crashes on lap 39 of the Auto Club 400, after contact with Kyle Larson. Harvick would finish 35th, nine laps down.

     After all the hype and storylines of a possible "four-peat," it wasn't meant to be for Kevin Harvick. The #4 car crashed early in Sunday's Auto Club 400 at California, after contact with Kyle Larson while trying to side-draft. Harvick's Ford suffered damage, and he finished the race in 35th, 9 laps down. It was a shame for Harvick, who appeared to have one of the fastest cars in the field.

Martin Truex Jr. celebrates after winning the Auto Club 400.

     Instead, California turned into a battle between Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch. The two exchanged the lead throughout the race, but a late pit stop made the difference. Kyle Busch's pit crew gave the #18 Toyota the incorrect wedge adjustment, which allowed to Truex Jr. to assume the lead and surge ahead in the final 30 laps. Truex Jr. wins his first race of 2018, and begins his run towards a possible 2nd straight championship. Rounding out the top-5 were Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano. Only one car failed to finish the race, Trevor Bayne, who crashed in turn three with a flat tire on lap 110...

Jeffrey Earnhardt drives at Auto Club Speedway. Earnhardt would finish 36th, 11 laps down.

     A minor, but interesting development is the news that StarCom Racing and Jeffrey Earnhardt parted ways after California. This is disappointing for Earnhardt fans, but not much of a surprise. StarCom's #00 Chevrolet has been considerably slower than the field at the last four races, after a 21st in the Daytona 500. With bigger tracks like California, it's clear to see StarCom just doesn't have the speed to compete yet... Landon Cassill will replace Earnhardt in the #00 this coming weekend at Martinsville, but it's unclear what Earnhardt's immediate plans will be. He will, however, keep his sponsor, VRX Simulators, which could help him land another ride (although who that would be is unclear).

     Here's a look at the classic point standings after five races... Truex Jr. now holds the point lead, ahead of Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch. Kevin Harvick's poor finish at California dropped him to 14th in the standings... Austin Dillon and Aric Almirola continue their respectable start to 2018, sitting 7th and 8th in points. Dillon's RCR teammate Ryan Newman sits in 13th.
     Up next, the Cup drivers head to NASCAR's oldest remaining track on the schedule, Martinsville Speedway. It's the first of six short track races we'll see this year, and is a welcome sight after four races begging for action, and close racing. Watch for Brad Keselowski on Sunday, as well as Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin. The three have the best average finishes at Martinsville among active drivers. For NASCAR Fantasy players out there, it also might be a good week to pick a mid-pack driver, as this race doesn't totally rely on speed and aerodynamics. I think I'll be using AJ Allmendinger...