Wednesday, October 3, 2018

The 2018 Winston Cup Series: "Round of 12" without the playoffs

Jimmie Johnson slides into Martin Truex Jr. on the final lap of the Bank of America Roval 400
     Sunday's race at the Charlotte 'Roval' ended up being exactly what NASCAR was hoping for. The event was unpredictable, tested driver skill, and even featured a chaotic finish. While entering the final turns, Jimmie Johnson locked the brakes up and spun into leader Martin Truex Jr., allowing Ryan Blaney to race by for his first win of the year. The final lap collision dropped Truex Jr. to 14th, while Johnson managed to finish 8th. Johnson wound up losing a tiebreaker for the final two spots in the next playoff round, with Aric Almirola and Kyle Larson. Because of his miscue on the final lap of the Roval, the 48 was eliminated. Also not advancing to round two of the playoffs: Austin Dillon, Denny Hamlin, and Erik Jones.
     Meanwhile, here's a look at the old standings, not calculating stage points or playoffs points:
     Without the playoffs altogether, the 2018 season looks drastically different. Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Truex are far ahead in points, holding true to the "Big Three" nameplate the media has given them. Joey Logano and Kurt Busch, ranked 4th and 5th, have had very consistent seasons with one win each. Right behind them, 6th in 'classic' points, sits Hamlin, now "eliminated" from the NASCAR Playoffs. Despite what NASCAR is trying to tell you, Hamlin has actually had another great year. One of the sport's most consistent drivers, Hamlin has 14 top-tens this season, and three starts from the pole. He's won at least one race in all 12 of the previous seasons, and has come close this year, notably at Indianapolis where he narrowly lost to Brad Keselowski.
The Las Vegas crash that effectively ended Denny Hamlin's chances in the playoffs
     Hamlin's playoff fate was pretty much sealed after a spin at Las Vegas, which destroyed the front end of his car in the infield grass. Finishes of 16th at Richmond, and 12th at the Roval weren't enough to save his championship hopes. If anything, Hamlin's "elimination" is the last thing we needed.
     The playoffs have also invalidated what was a great season for the 20 of Erik Jones, in his first year at Joe Gibbs Racing. Jones had a great summer, where he tallied 9 top-tens over 11 races, including his first career win at Daytona. Like his teammate, Jones' playoff hopes also dwindled at Las Vegas, where he crashed with Kevin Harvick and ended up in 40th place.
The highlight of Erik Jones' season so far, winning his first career Cup race at Daytona
     Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson has been having arguably the worst season of his Cup career. While Jimmie does have 10 top-ten finishes, it's nothing compared to his previous 16 seasons. This could end up being Johnson's first full season without a win. I partly blame this, and Hendrick's struggles, on Chevrolet's switch to the Camaro this season. Chevy has only gone to victory lane twice this year, including Chase Elliott's win at Watkins Glen. Johnson, and his teammates, haven't been blessed with the same speed as Ford and Toyota, which only hurt their cause.
     The other winning Chevy driver this season was Austin Dillon, taking the Daytona 500 back in February. Of all this year's playoff drivers, Dillon's resume was the worst, heading into the 'postseason' with only 4 top-tens. After the Roval, Dillon actually had less 'classic' points than his RCR teammate Ryan Newman, who believe it or not, is not even in the playoffs...
Kyle Busch wins his 7th race of the season at Richmond
     The real story we should be talking about is Kyle Busch's performance this year. With seven races to go in the "classic" format, Busch leads Kevin Harvick by 44 points, and Martin Truex Jr. by 85. Together, the three drivers have won 62 percent of this year's races, and amassed thousands of laps led. Under this format, nobody else - aside from Joey Logano - would have even a remote chance of capturing the championship. Busch would still be seeking his first title, while Truex Jr. hopes to go back-to-back. 
    With how well they've performed, why change the conversation to anything other than "the Big Three?"