Monday, February 26, 2018

The 2018 Winston Cup Series: Harvick's Atlanta dominance

Kevin Harvick in action during the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. Harvick led 188 of 325 laps en route to his second Atlanta win.
     After a lengthy rain delay, and impending rain in the forecast, NASCAR was somehow able to fit in a full race at Atlanta Sunday afternoon. Kevin Harvick, after smoking the Xfinity cars on Saturday, put on another clinic in the Cup series. In a clean race which only saw five cautions, and no crashes, Harvick led 188 of 325 laps, many times stretching his lead to several seconds. After smoking the field, Harvick celebrated by holding three fingers out the window, just as he did after his first win at Atlanta in 2001... It's hard to believe, after so many strong runs at the track, it was Harvick's first Atlanta win in 17 years... For anyone who was worried about the Fords in 2018, they finished in five of the first eight positions... Coming home 2nd was Brad Keselowski, followed by Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr.
Harvick celebrated Sunday's Atlanta win the same way he did in 2001 (left), with a salute to Dale Earnhardt Sr.
     Aside from Sunday's rain delay, which pushed the green flag to around 4pm, it was a great race weekend at Atlanta... Friday qualifying showed plenty of action: Ryan Newman bested Harvick's pole time by thousandths of a second, only to have his time beat by Kyle Busch... If not for that, Newman would have broken the record he and Buddy Baker share, of 7 Atlanta poles... Then on Saturday, after Harvick's Xfinity win, Brent Moffitt had a surprise win in the Truck race... Kyle Busch dominated, only to lose a wheel after an error on his last pit stop... With all the good action, it's a shame NASCAR doesn't come to Atlanta twice a year anymore...
Front row starters Kyle Busch and Ryan Newman prepare to take the green flag in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.
     Up next, it's #NASCARGoesWest... the Cup series now heads to Las Vegas, Phoenix (ISM Raceway), and California (Auto Club) for a west coast swing... After a dominant performance at Atlanta, watch for Harvick to be strong at both Las Vegas and Phoenix. Also watch for Truex Jr.; as Vegas is his track of choice, the 1.5-mile cookie cutter...

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

The 2018 Winston Cup Series: Thoughts on Dillon's Daytona win

Austin Dillon burns a "3" into the infield grass, after winning the 60th Daytona 500.
     Austin Dillon got a symbolic win Sunday, in an otherwise wild, crash-filled Daytona 500. Dillon grabbed the lead after making contact with Aric Almirola on the final lap, sending Almirola around and crashing in turn three. Dillon's win takes the #3 car back to victory lane in the 500, 20 years after Dale Earnhardt Sr. did the same. The win also came on February 18th, 17 years to the day that Dale Sr. died in the same race... Dillon's victory, so far, is the pinnacle of his career, as he begins his fifth full season with Richard Childress Racing, driving the #3. With all the pressure he faced bringing back Earnhardt's old number, the wait has been worth it... Coming home 2nd was Darrell Wallace Jr., the best finish ever by an African-American driver at Daytona... Ryan Blaney, who led 118 laps, finished 7th.
Driving for Team Penske, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano had two of the 500's fastest cars. Both came home with top-10 finishes.
     While I enjoyed the race overall, I was disappointed by the risky moves which wound up causing several accidents. After practically spending a month preparing for the Great American Race, we wound up with far too many wrecked race cars. It was easy to tell the cars were very unstable around eachother, and drafted differently than recent 500's...
     On lap 60, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. aggressively blocked Blaney, getting loose and causing a wreck that involved Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones, who both had great cars... Then on lap 102, Brad Keselowski gave Chase Elliott a powerful bump draft, wrecking both cars, Kevin Harvick, and Danica Patrick in her final Cup race... and on lap 199, Blaney turned Kurt Busch around in turn 1, ending his day, along with Matt DiBenedetto and Brandon Gaughan, who were looking at possible top-10's for their small organizations...
Chase Elliott (9), Danica Patrick (7), and Kasey Kahne (95) all wreck on lap 102 of the Daytona 500. Other cars involved include Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick.
     All three major incidents were completely avoidable, and could have kept the strongest cars up front... The longer I've watched NASCAR, the more I can't stand seeing the strongest car not win the race, it just doesn't feel right. With only a handful of laps remaining, Austin Dillon was running off pace, half a lap behind the lead pack of cars. Two late cautions gave him a chance to catch up, and lead the final lap, whereas Blaney's hard work was forgotten due to two late cautions. My pick for the 500 was Keselowski, based on how well the Penske cars ran in the Clash. It's a shame they couldn't replicate those results over 500 miles.
Aric Almirola crashes on the final lap, after being turned around by Austin Dillon
     And of course, if we're talking unnecessary crashes, look no further than the final lap. Almirola's attempted block on Austin Dillon got him turned into the wall. It's hard to outright defend Dillon, who said he wasn't going to lift off the throttle, and slightly takes away from the #3's return to victory lane... But I'll respect the move as just good ol' hard racing.
     If we're keeping track of old-school points, Dillon leads the standings after Daytona, by five points over Bubba Wallace and Denny Hamlin. Once we get a few races in, I'll get a points chart going... Now the Cup drivers head to Atlanta, for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. Watch for Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick to have a good race...
Kevin Harvick leads the field in last year's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

The 2018 NASCAR Season: A driver-by-driver preview

     Here we are! The 2018 NASCAR season is set to begin at Daytona, and I could not be more excited. We're coming off a year with 3 first-time winners, several great races, and about the best champion you could ask for in Martin Truex Jr... While some drivers are no longer in Cup – most notably Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth – new faces will join us in 2018, including the likes of William Byron and Darrell Wallace Jr…
     Once again, I'll keep track of the Cup season as if several modern adjustments hadn't been put in place... For starters, I'll keep track of the season's points using the last structure to not use stage points: 2016... The winner gets 40 points (plus bonus points for winning, and leading laps), while 40th place gets 1 point... Also, I don't factor in the playoffs... hence the term "classic points." The driver who puts together the best 36-race season is your champion on this blog!
     With that, here's a look at your NASCAR Cup Series drivers for 2018...

2018 NASCAR Cup Drivers
AJ Allmendinger
Age: 36
12th season in Cup
2017 stats: 5 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 26th
AJ Allmendinger returns to JTG-Daugherty Racing’s #47 Chevrolet. Allmendinger’s 2017 highlight was finishing 3rd in the Daytona 500. He looks to win his first Cup race since Watkins Glen in 2014, 122 races ago…
Aric Almirola
Age: 33
11th season in Cup
2017 stats: 6 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 28th

2017 was a tough season for Aric Almirola. He broke his back in a hard crash at Kansas in May, forcing him to miss seven races, and surprisingly not more. He finished 2017 on a higher note, with 3 top-tens in his last six races. After six full seasons driving the famed #43 for Richard Petty Motorsports, Almirola moves to Stewart Haas Racing this year, replacing Danica Patrick in the #10.

Trevor Bayne
Age: 26
9th season in Cup
2017 stats: 6 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 21st
Trevor Bayne has shown progress driving for Roush Fenway’s #6 Ford. 2017 was his best full-season yet, posting six top-10’s, and an average finish of 19.5… He still has yet to win since his upset victory in the 2011 Daytona 500.
Ryan Blaney
Age: 24
5th season in Cup
2017 stats: 1 win, 14 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 17th

2017 was a breakout year for Ryan Blaney. The 24-year old posted 14 top-tens, and won his first race at Pocono in June. This year, Blaney moves from the Wood Brothers to Team Penske, where he will pilot the #12 Ford, joining teammates Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano.

Alex Bowman
Age: 24
4th season in Cup
2017 stats: No Cup starts

Alex Bowman takes a powerful step this season, replacing Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the #88 Chevrolet. Bowman is no stranger to Cup; he raced full seasons in 2014 and 2015 with BK Racing... In 2016 he filled in for Dale Jr., who was out with a concussion. In ten starts in the #88, Bowman had three top-tens, including a race at Phoenix where he started from the pole and led the most laps. Bowman didn’t compete in a single Cup event last season, but he’s set to be a favorite driving for Hendrick Motorsports.

Clint Bowyer
Age: 38
14th season in Cup
2017 stats: 13 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 12th

After going winless for five straight seasons, Clint Bowyer hopes for more success in 2018. Last year, Bowyer put up several good runs in the #14; finishing 2nd three times... He returns for a second year at Stewart Haas, seeking his first Cup win since Charlotte in October 2012...

Chris Buescher
Age: 25
4th season in Cup
2017 stats: 4 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 25th

Chris Buescher returns for a second season with JTG-Daugherty Racing, in the #37 Chevrolet. The former Xfinity champion posted 4 top-tens in 2017, and had an average finish of 21st. Buescher hasn’t won – or come close – since his fluke victory in 2016 at a rain shortened Pocono race.

Kurt Busch
Age: 39
19th season in Cup
2017 stats: 1 win, 15 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 15th

Winning his first Daytona 500 with a last lap pass was Kurt Busch’s greatest moment of 2017. Everything went downhill from there, as Busch had multiple poor finishes throughout the year, leading to a 15th in classic points. He returns for a fifth season with Stewart Haas, in the #41 Ford.

Kyle Busch
Age: 32
15th season in Cup
2017 stats: 5 wins, 22 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 2nd

It was quite the adventurous 2017 for Kyle Busch; one where he never seemed to leave the headlines... After a fight with Joey Logano at Las Vegas, Busch found just about every way to lose a race. It wasn’t until Pocono in July where he finally went to victory lane, preceding to dominate the second half of the season... There were still several rough weekends, including crashing with Martin Truex Jr. at Indianapolis, or needing medical attention immediately after a rough race at Charlotte in October. Busch mounted the biggest challenge to Truex Jr.’s championship, but fell short. He’s a heavy favorite heading into 2018.

William Byron
Age: 20
1st season in Cup

Coming off powerful seasons in Trucks, then the Xfinity series, William Byron is ready to take on the Cup drivers. The 20-year-old from Charlotte, North Carolina makes his Cup series debut in the Daytona 500, driving the #24 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports. Byron had 4 Xfinity wins in 2017, and took home the championship.

Matt DiBenedetto
Age: 26
4th season in Cup
2017 stats: 2 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 32nd

Matt DiBenedetto and Go Fas Racing gained ground in 2017. DiBenedetto drove the #32 Ford to top tens in both the Daytona 500, and the Brickyard 400. He returns this year for his second full season with the team, and a growing legion of fans...

Austin Dillon
Age: 27
8th season in Cup
2017 stats: 1 win, 4 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 19th

After years of overhype, Austin Dillon finally pulled through with his first career Cup win in the Coca Cola 600, being handed the race with 2 to go when leader Jimmie Johnson ran out of gas. Aside from his win, Dillon had the lousiest resume of all playoff drivers in 2017. He only recorded 4 top-tens, and barely graced the top-20 in classic points.

Ty Dillon
Age: 25
5th season in Cup
2017 stats: 36 starts, no top-10’s
Classic points finish: 24th

Ty Dillon returns to Germain Racing in 2018 to field the #13 Chevrolet for a second season. The younger Dillon brother failed to record a single top-ten in his first full season, but had a few strong runs, including at Dover’s June race. Despite the poor results, Dillon only failed to finish three races in 2017.

Jeffrey Earnhardt
Age: 28
4th season in Cup
2017 stats: 34 starts, 0 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 36th

The Earnhardt tradition will continue, as fourth generation driver Jeffrey Earnhardt will compete in the Daytona 500, with StarCom Racing. Driving with Circle Sport-TMG last year, Earnhardt finished a season best of 26th in three separate races, and had countless DNF’s due to accidents and part failures. Plans for Earnhardt’s full season haven’t been finalized, pending on sponsorship… After Dale Jr.’s retirement, Earnhardt returns to Daytona with the hopes of millions of fans on his shoulders.

Chase Elliott
Age: 22
4th season in Cup
2017 stats: 21 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 6th

What else could you ask Chase Elliott to do in 2017? The driver recorded 21 top-tens, including five runner-up finishes, but he just couldn’t get that first win. His 6th in points is the best season for a winless driver since Ryan Newman in 2014. Elliott moves to the #9 this year, honoring his father, NASCAR legend Bill Elliott.

Gray Gaulding
Age: 20
3rd season in Cup
2017 stats: 27 starts, 1 top-10
Classic points finish: 35th
Gray Gaulding will compete in his first Daytona 500, driving for BK Racing. At 20, Gaulding will be the youngest driver in the field… He’s coming off a rookie season where he had a single top-ten finish, 9th at Talladega last fall. Full season plans are up in the air, as BK Racing faces a lawsuit over unpaid loans, and has not announced a full-time driver. Gaulding will drive a white, sponsorless #23 Toyota in the 500…
Denny Hamlin
Age: 37
14th season in Cup
2017 stats: 2 wins, 22 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 5th

Denny Hamlin had an adventurous year in the #11 FedEx Toyota. A highlight would be his thrilling win in the Southern 500, with a throwback scheme honoring “Mr. Modified” Ray Hendrick. Hamlin then lost some fans at Martinsville, after dumping Chase Elliott while battling for the lead. The drivers’ feud continued through the rest of the season… Nonetheless, Hamlin came home 5th in classic points. It was his 12th straight season with a victory, once again proving himself as one of NASCAR’s most consistent drivers.

Kevin Harvick
Age: 42
18th season in Cup
2017 stats: 2 wins, 23 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 3rd

It was another great season for “Happy Harvick.” He used good strategy to win Sonoma, then pulled off a huge feat at Texas in November, by beating Martin Truex Jr. at a 1.5 mile track. It’s amazing that he didn’t win more... Harvick has proven himself as NASCAR’s most consistent driver in the last few years. He has at least 20 top-ten finishes in each of the last 5 seasons, the only driver with that feat. Harvick enters 2018 looking for a 4th classic championship. He is now the 2nd oldest full-time driver in the sport.

Jimmie Johnson
Age: 42
18th season in Cup
2017 stats: 3 wins, 11 top-10's
Classic points finish: 14th
The oldest full-time NASCAR driver is now, believe it or not, Jimmie Johnson. The driver of the #48 Chevy is also the longest tenured driver with any team, first driving for Hendrick in 2001. Johnson won three times in 2017, with early-season victories at Texas, Bristol, and Dover. A lack of consistency cost him; Johnson only had 11 top-tens and finished 14th overall... This year, Mr. 7-Time* is also going for his 4th classic championship... He won the old format in 2006, 2009, and 2013, and since then hasn't placed better than 6th...
Erik Jones
Age: 21
3rd season in Cup
2017 stats: 5 top-5’s, 14 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 18th

The pride of rural Michigan had a great rookie season. Erik Jones had plenty of good runs in 2017, and some close bouts with victory, including the Bristol night race in August. He ended the year with 14 top-tens, and Rookie of the Year honors. He looks for his first Cup win as he moves to Joe Gibbs Racing, and the #20 Toyota.

Kasey Kahne
Age: 37
15th season in Cup
2017 stats: 1 win, 6 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 20th

If not for Kasey Kahne’s win in a crash-filled Brickyard 400, 2017 would have been even worse for the now departed Hendrick driver. Kahne had his worst average finish in a decade, only managing six top-tens. After six seasons with Hendrick Motorsports, Kahne will pilot the #95 for Leavine Family Racing, replacing Michael McDowell.

Brad Keselowski
Age: 34
11th season in Cup
2017 stats: 3 wins, 21 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 4th 

2017 was another great season for Brad Keselowski... The Michigan native scored two early season victories at Atlanta and Martinsville, before getting his 5th win at Talladega - now the leader among active drivers. Keselowski will seek his second championship this year, his 9th full season with Team Penske.
Corey Lajoie
Age: 26
3rd season in Cup
2017 stats: 32 starts, no top-10’s
Classic points finish: 34th
The son of 2-time Busch Series champion Randy Lajoie, Corey Lajoie will switch gears this season. Lajoie leaves BK Racing, and will drive for TriStar Motorsports, competing in a majority of races for the #72 team. He looks to improve on his best career finish of 11th, at Daytona last July.
Kyle Larson
Age: 25
6th season in Cup
2017 stats: 4 wins, 20 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 7th

Kyle Larson had a breakout year in 2017. The 25-year-old dominated the big tracks, sweeping Michigan and winning at California. He also notched first short track win, taking Richmond in September. For the first half of the season, Larson looked like the man to beat. But everything slowly went downhill after a 35-point penalty at Kentucky, the up-and-down summer that followed, and four-straight DNF’s in the fall. Larson, who had 12 top-two finishes, just needs to find consistency in 2018.

Joey Logano
Age: 27
11th season in Cup
2017 stats: 1 win, 17 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 10th
One of the biggest surprises of 2017 was Joey Logano’s disappointing season. After a good start, Logano’s win at Richmond was encumbered for a rear suspension issue. He followed that up with five straight finishes of 21st or worse, failed to win again, and did not qualify for the playoffs. After three straight years of finishing 2nd in classic points, Logano finished up 2017 in 10th.
Michael McDowell
Age: 33
11th season in Cup
2017 stats: 1 top-10
Classic points finish: 27th
Michael McDowell gets a fresh start in 2018, moving to Front Row Motorsports and replacing Landon Cassill in the #34 Ford. McDowell recorded a single top-ten finish in 2017, a 4th place in the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona. On a positive note, he also only recorded two DNF’s all year.
Jamie McMurray
Age: 41
17th season in Cup
2017 stats: 3 top-5’s, 17 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 9th

Jamie McMurray rode the consistency train all year long in 2017, proving that his season is exactly what NASCAR’s new format does not benefit. While “Jamie Mac” only recorded 3 top-fives, he still had his best average finish (14.6), and classic points finish since 2004. Despite that, he failed to make it to victory lane, and heads into 2018 with a 148-race winless streak. It will be his 9th season driving the #1 Chevrolet for Chip Ganassi.


Paul Menard
Age: 37
15th season in Cup
2017 stats: 2 top-5’s, 3 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 22nd

2018 will be a fresh start for Paul Menard. The 37-year-old will join the Wood Brothers in the storied #21 Ford. The Daytona 500 will also be Menard’s 400th career start. He looks to improve on his last two seasons with Richard Childress Racing, where he finished 23rd and 22nd in classic points. Menard is also hoping to snap a 232-race winless streak, dating back to the 2011 Brickyard 400.

Ryan Newman
Age: 40
19th season in Cup
2017 stats: 1 win, 13 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 11th

It’s hard to believe Ryan Newman is now a 40-year-old veteran in the Cup series. Newman provided a feel-good victory for Richard Childress Racing at Phoenix – his first since 2013 – by holding off the field with old tires on a late restart... He returns to the #31 Chevrolet for a fifth season with RCR. Newman is one of only five full-time drivers remaining from the Winston Cup era.

Danica Patrick
Age: 35
7th season in Cup
2017 stats: 1 top-10
Classic points finish: 29th
Danica Patrick plans to end her NASCAR career in this year’s Daytona 500, driving the #7 GoDaddy Chevrolet for Premium Motorsports. Patrick made history in the Cup series, becoming the first female driver to ever sit on the pole. She posted a single top-ten finish in 2017, a 10th place at Dover.
David Ragan
Age: 32
13th season in Cup
2017 stats: 3 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 30th
David Ragan continues his second stint with Front Row Motorsports, piloting the #38 Ford. He has been one of FRM’s mainstay drivers – only David Gilliland has made more Cup starts with the team. Ragan posted 3 top-tens last season, including 6th at Daytona in July, a race he came close to winning… With new teammate Michael McDowell, Ragan looks for more success, and his first win since Talladega in 2013…
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Age: 30
8th season in Cup
2017 stats: 2 wins, 9 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 16th

After four winless full seasons, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finally had a breakthrough year. He got his first career win at Talladega, followed up with another plate win at Daytona. He had a career best 9 top-tens throughout the year, and a career best 16th in classic points. This hopefully means some resurgence for Roush Fenway Racing, which hadn’t visited victory lane since 2014 with Carl Edwards.

Daniel Suarez
Age: 26
2nd season in Cup
2017 stats: 12 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 13th

Daniel Suarez had a great rookie season, overshadowed by not making the playoffs or winning a race. Regardless, he had 12 top-ten finishes, including a strong performance at Watkins Glen, where he finished 3rd. Suarez narrowly missed out on Rookie of the Year honors, finishing runner-up to his now-teammate Erik Jones... He begins his second full season with Joe Gibbs Racing in the #19 Toyota.

Martin Truex Jr.
Age: 37
15th season in Cup
2017 stats: 8 wins, 26 top-10’s
Classic points finish: 1st 
What else can you say? Martin Truex Jr. is the man! His championship was the ultimate feel-good story of the year, and his best season yet. Truex won a staggering eight races in 2017, and posted 19 top-fives… he even had five straight top-3 finishes to end the season. Truex Jr. returns to the #78 for Furniture Row Racing, looking to win back-to-back titles.
Darrell Wallace Jr.
Age: 24
2nd season in Cup
2017 stats: 4 starts, no top-10’s
Classic points finish: 41st
One of the biggest stories heading into 2018 is Bubba Wallace. He’s not only making headlines for being NASCAR’s first black driver in years, but also because he finally has the Cup ride that he deserves. Wallace made four starts in the famed #43 last year, subbing for an injured Aric Almirola. His good driving was enough to land him a full-time job. Wallace also had an impressive Truck series win at Michigan last year, in his only Truck series start of the season. He now leads Richard Petty Motorsports into a new era, as the #43 switches to Chevrolet.
Cole Whitt
Age: 26
8th season in Cup
2017 stats: 36 starts, no top-10’s
Classic points finish: 33rd

After 148 career starts, Cole Whitt is scaling back in the Cup series. Opting for more time with his family, Whitt will drive in select races for TriStar Motorsports this year… His best finish of 2017 was a 12th at Indianapolis.


Final thoughts
     Now the part where I predict this year’s champion… Clearly with NASCAR’s current ‘playoff’ format, it’s almost impossible to predict who will be in the final four at Homestead. So instead, I’m picking your ‘classic points’ champ; basically the driver who would win the old Winston Cup format on consistency.
Kyle Busch celebrates his victory at Dover last October, one of his five victories in 2017
     This year I’m picking Kyle Busch. Last year, ‘Rowdy’ had some tough luck, and despite his powerful runs, didn’t even win a race until the 2nd half of the season. If not for that, he could have easily beat Martin Truex Jr. for the title. The only question is whether or not the new Chevrolets will have the power to dethrone Toyota this season. So far, the Camaro body has looked pretty stout. Depending on that, I could also make a strong case for Chase Elliott or Kyle Larson.
     As for the season, I’m not a fan of the schedule changes, or in some cases, the schedule itself. I don’t believe moving Indianapolis to the final ‘regular season’ race will add any drama. I also don’t understand Charlotte’s attempt at a “roval” race, which through multiple tests, has looked ungodly slow… Out of 36 races, there are still 11 races on 1.5 mile tracks, also known as “cookie-cutters,” and only six on short tracks (Compare this to a season like 1996, where the Cup drivers raced on a 1.5 mile track only four times, but raced eight times on short tracks). Not to mention, Las Vegas, Kansas, and Texas all have two race dates this year, while New Hampshire is now down to a single race in July. That means you’ll see the same dull, processed-looking racing 11 times…
     Regardless of the complaints, I’m still excited for the year to begin. As a Michigan native, I look forward to both race dates at MIS, and maybe even a trip to an out-of-state track this fall...