Monday, September 25, 2017

The 2017 Winston Cup Series: Busch wins New Hampshire

Kyle Busch wins the ISM Connect 300 at New Hampshire.
     Kyle Busch led 187 of 300 laps Sunday to take the ISM Connect 300. Busch started on the pole for the eighth time this year, and won his third race of 2017. All three of those wins have come in the last eight races, and during that time, Busch has 7 top-tens... Coming home 2nd was Kyle Larson, followed by Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, and Martin Truex Jr., who led 112 laps and rebounded from a pileup on lap 150.
Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Jeffrey Earnhardt involved in a wreck on lap 150.
     The only major event of the race occurred at the end of Stage 2. Kevin Harvick spun on the backstretch, sending up a cloud of smoke. Piling in were Kurt Busch and Jeffrey Earnhardt. Meanwhile, both Truex and Dale Earnhardt Jr. spun, then made contact as they tried to straighten out. Truex Jr. never lost a lap, and finished with a well-deserved top-five.
     In regards to classic points after New Hampshire, Truex Jr. only lost 8 points to Kyle Busch, and 3 points to Larson. He now holds a 21-point lead with eight races to go. The real loser was Harvick, who finished 36th and lost a lot of ground in the standings. Chase Elliott is tied for 7th, after being docked 15 points following Chicagoland. Clint Bowyer is 9th after his first top-ten finish since Watkins Glen, and Ryan Newman holds on to 10th, one point ahead of Kenseth.

RIP fall New Hampshire race 1997-2017
     As you can probably tell, I'm disappointed in the decision to move NHMS's 2nd Cup series date over to Las Vegas, starting next season. In 2018, NASCAR is set to have *TEN* cookie-cutter races on its Cup schedule, including Vegas, Chicagoland, Kansas, Kentucky, Atlanta, Texas, and Charlotte (not counting Charlotte's roval race). And NASCAR wonders why fans are bored! New Hampshire is one of several unique NASCAR tracks that have been marginalized, or simply dropped from the schedule. With fairly flat turns on a mile racing surface, New Hampshire separates itself from other speedways on the schedule. The same can be said for Darlington, Rockingham, and North Wilkesboro, two of which are no longer on the circuit. Hopefully New Hampshire doesn't suffer the same fate...
     With that, let's look back at some of my favorite fall races at New Hampshire from growing up...

2001
     The final race of the '01 season, after the 9/11 attacks pushed the New Hampshire 300 to black Friday. Jeff Gordon led nearly the entire race, only to be pushed out of the way by Robby Gordon. When Jeff retaliated, he was penalized one lap and wound up 15th. Robby went on to his first Winston Cup win. It was controversial, but at 9 years old I couldn't have been more excited for Robby after his rough season (I guess I had gotten tired of watching Jeff win everything). Gordon lost his ride early in 2001, but then replaced an injured Mike Skinner in the #31...
Robby Gordon wins the 2001 New Hampshire 300
2002
     Rookie Ryan Newman finally breaks through and wins his first Winston Cup race. With rain in the forecast, Newman held off a charging Kurt Busch to keep the lead when the race was called after 207 laps. Newman went on to win Rookie of the Year honors over Busch in 2002...

2005
     Who could forget Michael Waltrip wrecking Robby Gordon, followed by Gordon throwing his helmet at Waltrip in retaliation, and cussing him out live on TNT? I'll never forget Wally Dallenbach saying "He ducked!" as Waltrip drove by the wreck... With two laps to go, Ryan Newman pulled the slide job on Tony Stewart and grabbed the lead. It was Newman's only win of 2005, and his last until the 2008 Daytona 500.
Robby Gordon takes out his anger at Michael Waltrip, tossing his helmet during the 2005 Sylvania 300
___

     Next week, the Cup series heads to Dover, with eight races remaining on the schedule. This is undoubtedly Jimmie Johnson's track; he holds a record with 11 wins there... Martin Truex Jr. could also be another driver to watch, he won at Dover last fall. And don't forget Kyle Larson, he had Dover won this June until a late race caution came out...
With eight races left, Martin Truex Jr. holds a 21-point lead over Kyle Busch.

Monday, September 18, 2017

The 2017 Winston Cup Series: Truex gets win No. 5

Martin Truex Jr. celebrates after winning the 2017 Tales of the Turtles 400 at Chicagoland. Truex led 77 of 267 laps.
     Martin Truex Jr. had a great run Sunday at Chicagoland, taking the checkered flag and winning his fifth race of 2017. That's a career high for Truex, who also extended his "classic" point lead. Chicagoland, the most "cookie cutter" of all cookie cutter tracks on the circuit, proved to be uneventful with only two cautions that weren't the end of a stage. Only 12 cars finished on the lead lap, and all 40 cars were running at the finish... Truex Jr. finished ahead of Chase Elliot, who notched his 7th top-five of the year. Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson rounded out the top-five. Kyle Busch led the most laps but came home 15th, one lap down...
     I saw a post on Twitter yesterday that compared Truex's career to that of Dale Jarrett. I don't think I could agree more... Jarrett ran nine seasons in NASCAR with only a few wins, before exploding on the scene with Robert Yates racing, winning 18 races in four years, and the 1999 championship. Truex Jr. has a similar story; who would've thought that he would develop into a championship contender? Truex drove four full seasons for DEI/Earnhardt-Ganassi, with one victory in 2007. He didn't win again until 2013 with Michael Waltrip Racing, before switching to Furniture Row Racing in 2014. Now 37, Truex is looking at his best shot at the title...
Truex Jr. racing for Dale Earnhardt Inc. in 2006
     Now that the "playoffs" have begun, you're about to see some noticeable differences in the official standings vs. the "classic" points on this blog. Remember, we're acting as if the playoffs/chase didn't exist. In the classic format, Truex Jr. has now extended his point lead to 29 over both Busch and Harvick. With his good run Sunday, Chase Elliott loses the least to Truex, maintaining 7th position, 92 points back. Rather than fighting for their "playoff" lives, Jamie McMurray and Ryan Newman are both running well, 8th and 9th in points. Clint Bowyer hangs on to 10th, as opposed 18th in the official standings. And Jimmie Johnson currently sits 13th, way out of the championship hunt...


     Plenty of silly-season news broke over the last week... Both Aric Almirola and Danica Patrick are now free agents for 2018, only adding to the list of drivers questionable for next year, including Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, and Kasey Kahne. Almirola has one career win, coming in the rain-shortened 2014 Coke Zero 400... Patrick remains winless in 181 starts, one of the longest streaks for active drivers. The big question is how many of these "free agent" drivers will be able to find a ride for next season. Kasey Kahne could possibly end up with Leavine Family Racing, which could mean the end of Michael McDowell in the #95, or a two-car operation. I personally doubt Kenseth, Busch, or Patrick are interested in a small-car team that can't compete, so their futures are definitely up in the air. I will say, that I think it'd be great to see Darrell Wallace Jr. take over the #43, we'll see what happens...

Martin Truex Jr. holds a 29-point advantage with nine races to go in 2017...
     Next week, the Cup series heads to New Hampshire for the final fall race at the track (Unfortunately, Las Vegas will take over the track's 2nd race date in 2018)... Jeff Burton holds the track record of 4 wins at New Hampshire, but five drivers have a shot to tie that this weekend. They include Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Denny Hamlin, who won at New Hampshire back in July... While Truex Jr. has never won New Hampshire, he has been consistently fast. In the last three races there, Truex has led 401 of 900 laps. He has another great shot of extending his point lead this coming Sunday.

Monday, September 11, 2017

The 2017 Winston Cup Series: Richmond's wild finish

Martin Truex Jr. crashes on the final lap at Richmond, after contact with Denny Hamlin. Truex, who led 198 of 404 laps, wound up 20th.
     In the "regular season finale" at Richmond, Martin Truex Jr. dominated, but it was Kyle Larson who sneaked by with a win after a late caution. After a long green flag run to the finish, Derrick Cope brought out the caution with only a few laps remaining. This cost Truex Jr. the lead, and eventually the race. Larson took off on the final restart, while Denny Hamlin and Truex made contact in Turn 1 and crashed on the final lap. Truex finished 20th after running up front all night... As much as I hated the finish, it's redemption in a way for Larson. The #42 had the same result at Dover back in June, when he led by nearly half a lap only to have the caution come out late and cost him the race to Jimmie Johnson. You win some, you lose some...
     Coming home in 2nd was Joey Logano, followed by Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, and Hamlin. Jimmie Johnson got his first top-ten since New Hampshire in July... Dale Earnhardt Jr. led briefly and finished 13th... and Matt Kenseth finished 38th, after an ambulance blocked the entrance to pit road under caution and caused damage to several cars. Clint Bowyer, who was the focus of several "must-win" headlines, finished 23rd, one lap down.
Kyle Larson celebrates his surprise win at Richmond
     For Larson, it's his fourth win of the season, and first career win at a short track. For me, Larson's 2017 really reminds me of Jeff Gordon in 1995. That year Gordon, who was already well established, won seven races and his first championship. Larson has shown the same prowess this year, after sweeping at Michigan, wins at California and Richmond, and finishing 2nd seven times. Aside from a 35-point penalty after Kentucky that set him back in the standings, Larson has been a frontrunner all year long. He's one of the biggest threats for the championship with ten races to go...
Top 5 in classic points
     So with that, here's your non-chase/playoffs top five... After finishing 20th, Martin Truex Jr. now leads Kyle Busch by only 13 points. Harvick trails in 3rd by 24 points, followed by Larson, and Denny Hamlin (Hamlin was penalized 25 points after his Darlington win, so that sets him back). The gap from Truex to Brad Keselowski in 6th is 84 points, so your top-5 is currently the chase for the title...
Top 25 in classic points
(click for a closer look)
     Looking at the top-25 after Richmond, drivers who the Playoffs would benefit are currently out of the championship hunt. The biggest example is Jimmie Johnson, whose poor summer has cost him in points, despite his three wins this year. Both Austin Dillon and Kasey Kahne, who made the playoffs on their wins, are actually back in 20th and 21st. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Ryan Blaney don't fare much better, in 16th and 18th. One driver who has gone slightly unrecognized is Ryan Newman with four straight top-tens, helping him jump from 13th in points after Watkins Glen to 9th. And with their lack of wins, both Chase Elliott and Jamie McMurray are having great seasons, running 7th and 8th in points.
     Here's the big storyline on this blog: Of the top-5 drivers, only one has won a championship (using the old format). Right now, Kevin Harvick is going for his 3rd straight title, something that nobody has done since Cale Yarborough in 1978 (Jimmie Johnson's five straight don't count). Meanwhile, Truex Jr. has had a career resurgence, and a championship would be icing on the cake. And in his 4th season, young gun Kyle Larson is at peak performance. Now more than ever, finishes are extremely important down the stretch. We'll see what happens in the final ten races, without the Chase.
NASCAR drivers salute the fans before the start of the 2017 Federated Auto Parts 400

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

The 2017 Winston Cup Series: Hamlin's Darlington Comeback

Denny Hamlin celebrates after winning the Southern 500 at Darlington. Hamlin's throwback scheme paid tribute to legendary modified driver Ray Hendrick.
     In what could easily be the most impressive comeback of the season, Denny Hamlin won this year's Southern 500. Hamlin nearly blew it with around 50 laps remaining, when he overshot the entrance to pit road, losing around 10 seconds. He then rebounded with fresh tires, and caught back up to leader Martin Truex Jr, who then blew a tire and surrendered the lead. For Truex Jr., the loss was heartbreaking, but for Hamlin it was the culmination of a never-quit attitude. Coming home 2nd was Kyle Busch, who was on the same pit strategy as Hamlin. Kurt Busch, Austin Dillon, and Erik Jones rounded out the top-5 at Darlington. Only 8 cars finished on the lead lap, in a race that featured a 102-lap green flag run to the finish.
     This year's Southern 500, in my opinion, was the best of the "throwback" races yet. Nearly the entire 40-car field had some form of throwback scheme, whether it was from NASCAR's past, or simply a retro look. Hamlin's paint scheme recognized modified driver Ray Hendrick, who Hamlin idolized growing up. Both Earnhardts ran special schemes; Dale Jr. ran a throwback to his Busch series car, and Jeffrey ran a scheme paying tribute to Dale Sr.'s Busch ride in 1989. In fact, only five drivers didn't have a special paint job for Darlington this year...
In order by number, the throwbacks run by Keselowski, Dillon, Patrick, DiBenedetto, Larson, and Cope
Some of my personal favorites were run by:
     -Brad Keselowski, who threw it back to the early 90's with a Rusty Wallace paint scheme
     -Austin Dillon/Ryan Newman, who both paid tribute to Dale Earnhardt's ride in 1987
     -Danica Patrick, who based her ride off of Dale Jarrett's #88, from his Championship year in 1999
     -Matt Dibenedetto, whose ride was based off of Bobby Allison's car from 1988
     -Kyle Larson, who threw it back to Kyle Petty's ride in 1995 (including the staggered number)
     -Derrick Cope, who threw it back to himself, and his former Mane 'n Tail ride from 1994-96

     A few prominent drivers had trouble during the race, including Clint Bowyer (40th), Daniel Suarez (38th), and Ryan Blaney (31st). There were eight cautions during the race, slightly below average for recent years at Darlington. Eight different drivers led the race's 367 laps, and in a rare occurrence, Hamlin and Larson tied for most laps led. Using the old rules, this simply means both of them get an extra point for leading the most laps...
     One of the storylines for Sunday night's Southern 500 is that Martin Truex Jr. locked up the "regular season title"... but not on this blog! With his tumble to 8th place, Truex didn't get the perfect run at Darlington he wanted, but it was still a good points day. Among drivers trailing close behind, only Kyle Busch and Hamlin gained on Truex. Now the #78 leads Busch by 23 points, and Karvick by 27... Right now, Larson's 35-point penalty after Kentucky appears to have had a big impact, and could potentially cost him a chance at the championship... Bowyer's rough night helped bump him down to 9th in the standings, while McMurray and Elliott moved up to 7th and 8th...
Dale Earnhardt Jr. celebrates his win at Richmond in 2004
     Up next, the Cup drivers head to Richmond, one of the last short track races of the year. Among active drivers, Kyle Busch leads the way with four wins there, which he won consecutively in the spring Richmond race from 2009 to 2012... While Earnhardt Jr. hasn't been the most successful in recent years at Richmond, he has three wins there, in 2000, 2004, and 2006. Look for him to show potential in his last race at the track, even if he's without crew chief Greg Ives...
Joey Logano celebrates his Richmond win back in April
     And following real storylines, this is pressure time for Joey Logano. His Richmond win in April was "encumbered" and didn't count towards his playoff hopes. Logano needs to win Saturday night to ensure he makes the playoffs, and he actually has a good chance. In the last 10 races at Richmond, Logano has performed great, with 2 wins and 8 top-tens. His average finish in that time is about 9th, only bested by Harvick with an astounding average of 7th place (6.9). Meanwhile, Martin Truex Jr. has never won at the track.