NASCAR without the Chase: A year-by-year breakdown

The iconic Winston Cup trophy, awarded to the season's champion from 1972-2003

     In the last several weeks, I have transformed my blog into an in-depth look at the 2017 NASCAR season. More specifically, how the championship would be awarded using old rules, and a week-by-week look at the point standings with the old format. One thing I haven't done is explained why I truly think the "classic" format should still be in use.
     Through 2003, NASCAR simply awarded the title to the best driver all season, with no playoff format. This would be the equivalent of a regular season champion in ball sports. In each race, leading a lap or the most laps would mean extra points. The system had been virtually unchanged for nearly 30 years...
     Then in 2004, NEXTEL came on-board with sponsorship, and the Chase for the Cup was implemented. From then through 2013, "the Chase" took the top drivers and bunched them apart by a small interval of points, with 10 races remaining. In essence, this created a closer race for the championship as the season wound down.
     Since 2014, the Chase has been replaced with a bracket-style elimination method, simply removing the lowest ranking drivers every few races. The result is a season finale at Homestead which gives the four remaining drivers an equal chance to win the title. Of the four drivers, the highest finisher wins the championship. Also, a win now qualifies a driver for the Chase, eliminating the need for pure consistency throughout the first 26 races.
     And starting in 2017, long-standing awards for leading a lap, or the most laps were scrapped when NASCAR implemented stage racing. This replaced the benefit of leading laps, instead awarding points to drivers in the top-10 at the end of stages 1 and 2, and giving a "playoff point" to the stage winner. This effectively means a driver who has a poor race but ends up winning, will receive far less points than a driver who runs up-front all day and finishes 2nd. If it sounds a little complicated, you're right.

If the classic points system had remained in place, Jeff Gordon would have won 7 champions, tying legends Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt. Instead, his teammate Jimmie Johnson holds the distinction.

     The changes were obviously made by NASCAR to create excitement and improve ratings, but it also altered their history. They did what most sports never do: redefine what a champion is. Consistancy over a full season was the key to success, as opposed to wins. A glaring example is Matt Kenseth, who in 2003, won a single race en route to his championship. With eight races to go in the season, Kenseth held a 436-point lead over Kevin Harvick. Kenseth faltered near the end of the season and only won the title by 90 points, but his consistency made it nearly impossible for anyone to catch him. Meanwhile, Ryan Newman won a career-high 8 races in 2003, but also failed to finish 7 races. Newman's inconsistency got him 6th in points. While Kenseth won the Winston Cup fair and square, the lack of competitiveness likely spurred NASCAR to make a change.

While it didn't take Jimmie Johnson long to become a champion, he isn't as truly dominant as you might think. With the 'Winston Cup' format, Johnson only keeps 3 of his 7 titles.

     In doing so, it's rewritten the history books. With the Chase, Jimmie Johnson won five straight championships from 2006 to 2010. The key became mastering the Chase, as opposed to the full season. Under old rules, Johnson would have only won two of those five straight titles. And of course, the new format is laughable to any old die-hard fan. Letting Homestead be a shootout between four drivers is exciting, but it's completely erased the original definition of what a champion is. In 2014 Jeff Gordon dominated, with a career year that would have amounted to a championship. Instead, Gordon was credited with 6th in the final standings, 'eliminated' after Phoenix under the new points system.

    So with that, it's time to look at your "classic" champs over the last several years. Let's assume that the Chase/playoffs was never implemented... what would each championship race look like?
     Just because 2001 is when I truly started following NASCAR, we'll begin with the final few Winston Cup seasons (these need no alteration)...

2001
     Jeff Gordon dominated, winning six races throughout the season. During the summer, the points remained close between Gordon, Jarrett, and Rudd, with Gordon pulling ahead for his 4th title. In a tumultuous year which featured the death of Dale Earnhardt and the September 11th attacks, the season also featured 5 first-time winners: Michael Waltrip, Kevin Harvick, Elliott Sadler, Ricky Craven, and Robby Gordon.

Final standings
1) Jeff Gordon, 5112
2) Tony Stewart, -349
3) Sterling Marlin, -371
4) Ricky Rudd, -406
5) Dale Jarrett, -500

Gordon celebrates his fourth title after the 2001 NAPA 500. An interesting fact, 2001 was the final year a driver locked up a championship at Atlanta.

2002
     Tony Stewart wins his first championship, in a year which featured plenty of drama in the standings. Sterling Marlin led for much of the season, but had some poor finishes in September and was sidelined after a crash at Kansas. Multiple drivers held the points lead over the final ten races, including Marlin, Mark Martin, Jimmie Johnson, and Stewart. For the fourth time in his career, Martin had to settle for 2nd place. Once again, there were 5 first-time winners: Kurt Busch, Johnson, Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray, and Johnny Benson.

After only four seasons in NASCAR, Tony Stewart had tallied 15 wins, 87 top-tens, and the 2002 Championship

Final standings
1) Tony Stewart, 4800
2) Mark Martin, -38
3) Kurt Busch, -159
4) Jeff Gordon, -193
5) Jimmie Johnson, -200

2003
     Matt Kenseth wins his first and only championship. Kenseth grabbed the points lead after the fourth race of the season, and never lost it. His only win for the year came at Las Vegas. Greg Biffle was 2003's only first-time winner. Multiple veteran drivers had their final wins in 2003: Bill Elliott, Terry Labonte, and Bobby Labonte.

The 2003 Pop Secret 400 was a fitting farewell to Winston Cup; Matt Kenseth locked up his championship, and Bill Elliott recorded his 44th and final win, as Rockingham held one of its final Cup races

Final standings
1) Matt Kenseth, 5022
2) Jimmie Johnson, -90
3) Dale Earnhardt Jr., -207
4) Jeff Gordon, -237
5) Kevin Harvick, -252

     Now let's take a hypothetical look at the history books, where the classic points system remained in place after 2003...
     One note: a lot of the following statistics assume the Chase had never been adopted. Special thanks to Racing Reference, and Jayski's silly season site to help with this recap...

If the classic points had remained in place, Kurt Busch would have never captured a championship. His only top-5 points finishes were in 2002 and 2004.

2004
Nextel Cup champion: Kurt Busch
Classic champion: Jeff Gordon assumed the points lead after Richmond, and went on to win his 5th championship. He narrowly edged Jimmie Johnson, who once again finished 2nd in points. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a career year, at times coming very close to Gordon's late-season point lead. He won six races, including the Daytona 500, and placed 3rd. Kurt Busch wound up 4th. Jamie McMurray has a great season, his 23 top-tens helped him finish 7th in points.

Dale Jr. wins the EA Sports 500, his 5th win at Talladega, and one of his six victories in a stellar 2004 campaign. In the background, Elliott Sadler gets turned around and flips for the second straight year at Talladega.

Final standings
1) Jeff Gordon, 5042
2) Jimmie Johnson, -47
3) Dale Earnhardt Jr., -173
4) Kurt Busch, -247
5) Tony Stewart, -341

2005
Tony Stewart dominated, winning the championship in either format. His 5 wins came in a 7-race stretch during the summer, including memorable victories at Daytona and Indianapolis. Greg Biffle led the series with 6 wins and finished 2nd in points, the best performance of his career... In his first full season, Carl Edwards won 4 races and came in 5th... And in his final season, Rusty Wallace came in 6th. First-time winners included Edwards, Kasey Kahne, and Kyle Busch.

2005: Tony Stewart captures his second championship

Final standings
1) Tony Stewart, 5199
2) Greg Biffle, -215
3) Jimmie Johnson, -428
4) Mark Martin, -523
5) Carl Edwards, -602

2006
Jimmie Johnson wins his first title in both formats. This one was close; Johnson edged Matt Kenseth by 4 points. Denny Hamlin put up an impressive first full season, winning both races at Pocono and finishing 5th in points. Kasey Kahne had a breakthrough year, winning six races and finishing 9th in the standings. First-time winners in 2006 were Hamlin and Brian Vickers.

Final standings
1) Jimmie Johnson, 5158
2) Matt Kenseth, -4
3) Kevin Harvick, -320
4) Tony Stewart, -431
5) Denny Hamlin, -433

2007
Nextel Cup Champion: Jimmie Johnson
Classic champion: Jeff Gordon crushed the competition in 2007, in what remains the most dominant season for a driver in the Chase era. Gordon won six races, surpassed Dale Earnhardt's 76 career victories, and had a record-breaking 30 top-10 finishes. His 353 point margin over Johnson in 2nd remains one of the most dominant seasons to date. Johnson is the most recent driver to record 10 wins in a season. Clint Bowyer's breakout year gets him an 8th in final points.

Gordon's staggering 30 top-tens in 2007 were more than enough to secure him a sixth championship.

Final standings
1) Jeff Gordon, 5455
2) Jimmie Johnson, -353
3) Tony Stewart, -706
4) Matt Kenseth, -737
5) Denny Hamlin, -832

2008
Sprint Cup Champion: Jimmie Johnson
Classic champion: Carl Edwards won a career-best 9 races in 2008, including three of the final four in the season. It was enough for him to sneak past Jimmie Johnson for his first championship. Johnson held a 56-point lead heading into Homestead, but Edwards won the race and Johnson finished 15th... Kyle Busch had an astounding year, winning eight races. He held a 207-point lead with 10 races to go, but a string of bad finishes in September cost Busch the title. Jeff Burton had his first top-5 points finish since 2000. Finishing 6th thru 9th were Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, and Tony Stewart.

Edwards snagged the points lead from Johnson in the series finale at Homestead, for his first of two championships. Johnson finishes runner-up for the 2nd straight year.

Final standings
1) Carl Edwards, 5236
2) Jimmie Johnson, -16
3) Kyle Busch, -252
4) Greg Biffle, -489
5) Jeff Burton, -527

2009
Jimmie Johnson wins his second championship. Tony Stewart held the points lead for much of the season, but poor finishes in the final handful of races allowed Johnson and Jeff Gordon to catch up. Mark Martin returns to driving full-time, and wins five races with Hendrick Motorsports. Colombian driver Juan Pablo Montoya has a career-best 8th place finish in the standings. After his championship season that featured 9 wins, Carl Edwards goes winless and finishes 11th.

Final standings
1) Jimmie Johnson, 5156
2) Jeff Gordon, -66
3) Tony Stewart, -71
4) Denny Hamlin, -350
5) Mark Martin, -394


2010
Sprint Cup Champion: Jimmie Johnson
Classic champion: Kevin Harvick, who replaced Earnhardt Sr. at RCR in 2001, finally wins his first championship in comeback fashion. After two winless seasons, 'Happy Harvick' won the spring race at Talladega, his first win since the 2007 Daytona 500. Soon after, Harvick assumed the point lead and jumped ahead, leading by over 200 points for much of the season. He also picked up wins at Daytona, and Michigan. Denny Hamlin won a career-high 8 races and finished 3rd in points.

Harvick wins his first 'Winston Cup' championship in 2010.

Final standings
1) Kevin Harvick, 5274
2) Jimmie Johnson, -285
3) Denny Hamlin, -409
4) Carl Edwards, -454
5) Jeff Gordon, -605

2011
Sprint Cup Champion: Tony Stewart
Classic champion: Carl Edwards wins his 2nd championship. Edwards was involved in a very closely contested point battle in the fall, between himself, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick. He grabbed the points lead in October, and ran away with the title. Edwards won a single race in 2011, Las Vegas in March. This is the first season NASCAR uses a condensed point-value system, with points more-closely reflecting the number of cars in the field... Kevin Harvick follows up his championship with 2nd in points, and Brad Keselowski has his first top-10 points finish with 10th place.

Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards in the 2011 season finale at Homestead.

Final standings
1) Carl Edwards, 1278
2) Kevin Harvick, -78
3) Tony Stewart, -87
4) Jimmie Johnson, -91
5) Matt Kenseth, -95
     (In reality, 2011 produced a dramatic season finale when Stewart and Edwards tied for the points lead, but a tiebreaker on wins gave Stewart the title)

2012
Brad Keselowski wins his first championship, in just his third full season in NASCAR. Throughout the year, multiple drivers led in the standings, including Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Greg Biffle, and Jimmie Johnson. Keselowski had a great string of finishes to end the season, and took the points lead at points lead at Phoenix in November. For the second time Biffle finishes runner-up in the standings, and Clint Bowyer has a career year, finishing 5th... Martin Truex Jr. finishes top-10 in points for the first time, with 8th. Earnhardt Jr., after contending for the title, drops back to 9th. Keselowski, Johnson, and Denny Hamlin all led the way in wins, with five each.

Brad Keselowski celebrates his 2012 championship after the Ford EcoBoost 400

Final standings
1) Brad Keselowski, 1259
2) Greg Biffle, -19
3) Jimmie Johnson, -28
4) Matt Kenseth, -41
5) Clint Bowyer, -46

2013
Jimmie Johnson wins his third Cup championship, after leading in points nearly the entire season. Johnson had six wins, including a sweep at Daytona, and 24 top-tens. After briefly taking the points lead in September, Carl Edwards dropped back to 6th. Matt Kenseth leads the way with 7 wins, coming 3rd in points. Dale Jr. recorded no wins, but finished 5th (the best points finish for a winless driver since Ricky Rudd in 2000). Jeff Gordon records only a single win at Martinsville, finishing 8th. And in his final full season, Jeff Burton comes home 20th in points, and Mark Martin has his final career Cup start at Homestead.

Johnson wins his 3rd 'Winston Cup' championship

Final standings
1) Jimmie Johnson, 1248
2) Kevin Harvick, -41
3) Matt Kenseth, -56
4) Kyle Busch, -85
5) Dale Earnhardt Jr., -104

2014
Sprint Cup Champion: Kevin Harvick
Classic champion: Jeff Gordon makes history by winning his 7th title, tying him with Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt. In his final dominant season, Gordon won four races, and tallied 23 top-tens. Penske Racing won 11 races in 2014 between drivers Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski, who finished 2nd and 3rd. Dale Earnhardt Jr. wins four races and has his best season in a decade. In his rookie season, Kyle Larson notches an 8th in points. He had 17 top-tens, including three runner-up finishes. And for the first time in his career, Jimmie Johnson fails to finish in the top-5 in points. Johnson won four races and finished 9th...

Jeff Gordon wins the Pure Michigan 400, his 91st career victory.

Final standings
1) Jeff Gordon, 1253
2) Joey Logano, -37
3) Brad Keselowski, -74
4) Dale Earnhardt Jr., -78
5) Kevin Harvick, -82

2015
Sprint Cup Champion: Kyle Busch
Classic champion: Kevin Harvick wins his second title, after a dominant season which featured 28 top-tens. Harvick had victories at Las Vegas and Phoenix in March, and Dover in October. Logano assumed the point lead over Harvick in the fall, and led by up to 49 points after his controversial win at Talladega. But after Logano was wrecked by Matt Kenseth at Martinsville, and problems at Texas the week after, Harvick took the point lead back. Once again, Logano and Brad Keselowski finished 2nd and 3rd in points, followed by Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 4th, and Martin Truex had a career-best 5th place. In Jeff Gordon's final season in the #24, he had one win at Martinsville and finished 8th in points. After a two-race suspension, Kenseth finished 13th in the standings; and Kyle Busch, who missed the first 11 races after an injury at Daytona, came back to win five races and finished 20th.

Kevin Harvick wins his 2nd championship in 2015. For the second straight year, Joey Logano comes home 2nd.

Final standings
1) Kevin Harvick, 1320
2) Joey Logano, -21
3) Brad Keselowski, -103
4) Dale Earnhardt Jr., -122
5) Martin Truex Jr., -156

2016
Sprint Cup Champion: Jimmie Johnson
Classic champion: Harvick repeats as champion, backing up 2015 with 4 wins, and 27 top-tens in 2016. He once again beat Logano and Keselowski, who finished 2nd and 4th. Jimmie Johnson wins 5 races and places 7th... Chase Elliott places 11th, en route to winning Rookie of the Year... Kyle Larson wins his first career race at Michigan, and places 12th...  And in their final years in NASCAR, Carl Edwards finished 8th, Greg Biffle 21st, and Tony Stewart 24th.

Kevin Harvick gets his 34th career win at New Hampshire on Sept. 25, 2016. It's one of four wins that help him toward a 3rd championship.

Final standings
1) Kevin Harvick, 1159
2) Joey Logano, -26
3) Kyle Busch, -54
4) Brad Keselowski, -70
5) Denny Hamlin, -75

Altered History

Right now, Harvick would be going for a record that remained unbroken, tying Cale Yarborough's three-straight titles in 1976, 1977, and 1978.

     With NASCAR's move to change their definition of a "champion," it's meant different storylines too. Rather than celebrating Jeff Gordon's legendary feat of seven championships, we did just that for his teammate Jimmie Johnson. In the 2000's, Johnson wiped away a long-standing record set by Cale Yarborough in 1978, winning three-straight championships, and eventually five-straight. If the format hadn't changed, Johnson would've never achieved that feat. Likewise, part of this year's storyline would be Harvick's chase to tie Yarborough's record.
     Also with the chase/playoffs, we've forgotten to recognize drivers that had great seasons. This includes Jeff Gordon in 2007, where he set a modern-era record of 30 top-tens... Another example is Carl Edwards, who instead is remembered as a veteran driver who never won a championship... As a rookie in 2014, Kyle Larson missed the Chase, but would have finished 8th in points with no Chase. It was essentially the best rookie season by any driver since 2006, yet it went virtually unrecognized... The same goes for Martin Truex Jr. in 2012, who as a heavy underdog, would've driven his #56 Toyota to an 8th in points...

With the 'Winston Cup' format, Carl Edwards would retire as a two-time champion, in 2008 and 2011

     Obviously there's an argument that things would be different if the old points system actually remained in place. Drivers would have likely raced differently in the final ten races if the points hadn't been reset, that's understandable. But regardless, the action, and the storylines would have been just as exciting. Maybe the championship wouldn't come down to the wire every year, but it would be a statement that the NASCAR season matters for all 36 races, not just the last ten...

NASCAR's true seven-time champions: Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, and Jeff Gordon